Here’s a curated and well-organized collection of recent studies, expert analyses, and strategic forecasts addressing the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, potential scenarios, Western responses, U.S. plans, and the risk of a Sino-American war. Each entry includes a title and direct link to the source.
1. The Possibility of a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
- Will China Invade Taiwan? A Potential Timeline for Conflict
Global Guardian
Explores China’s strategic posture, military readiness, and the likelihood of an invasion, including recent PLA naval simulations around Taiwan. - Rethinking the Threat: Why China Is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
Stimson Center
Argues that an invasion would be politically and militarily risky for China, citing nuclear escalation, economic fallout, and operational complexity. - China Likely to Prioritize Intimidation Over Invasion in Next 6–12 Months
Janes
Intelligence assessment raises invasion probability from 5% to 7%, but emphasizes coercion and hybrid warfare as more likely strategies.
2. Scenarios of a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
- Is Taiwan’s Democracy Ready to Defend Itself?
Taiwan News
Details Taiwan’s civil defense mobilization, including plans to train 400,000 civilians and build strategic infrastructure to resist invasion. - EDITORIAL: Stressing Civil Defense
Taipei Times
Lists wartime scenarios including full-scale invasion, blockade, sabotage of infrastructure, and cognitive warfare.
3. How Would the West Confront China’s Efforts to Invade Taiwan?
- Triggers for Collective Defense Loom as Realistic Concern in Japan
Asahi Shimbun
Japan’s security legislation could activate collective defense if Taiwan is attacked, with potential deployment of minesweepers and patrol aircraft. - Rethinking the Threat: Why China Is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
Stimson Center
Suggests Western deterrence strategies should focus on economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and bolstering Taiwan’s resilience.
4. What Are the United States’ Plans If China Invades Taiwan?
- Will China Invade Taiwan? A Potential Timeline for Conflict
Global Guardian
Discusses U.S. strategic ambiguity, military deployments in the Pacific, and potential intervention scenarios. - China Likely to Prioritize Intimidation Over Invasion in Next 6–12 Months
Janes
Notes U.S. surveillance and naval presence as part of deterrence posture, with contingency planning underway.
5. Could a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Spark a Sino-American War?
- Will China Invade Taiwan? A Potential Timeline for Conflict
Global Guardian
Warns that a full-scale invasion could trigger direct U.S.–China conflict, with global economic and military consequences. - Rethinking the Threat: Why China Is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
Stimson Center
Highlights the risk of nuclear escalation and the strategic nightmare of a Sino-American war over Taiwan.
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