Here is a curated list of studies, articles. These sources offer data, expert analysis, and historical comparisons relevant to potential U.S. instability
1. Polarization and Armed Conflict Risk
- Right-Wing Extremist Violence Is More Frequent and More Deadly Than Left-Wing Violence
The Conversation
Analyzes domestic terrorism data and ideological trends; highlights normalization of political violence. - What We Know About Political Violence in America
FactCheck.org
CSIS data shows left-wing attacks outnumber right-wing ones in 2025 for the first time in 30 years. - ‘A Perfect Storm’: Extremism Online and Political Polarization Are Increasing the Risk of Attacks
NBC News
Experts warn of fractured ideologies and lone-actor threats fueled by online radicalization.
2. Immigration Policies and Regional Instability
- Trump’s Policies Strike Fear into Texas Immigrant Communities
Texas Tribune
Documents mass arrests, community disruption, and growing protest movements in border regions. - Trump, Project 2025 and Immigration
FactCheck.org
Details controversial proposals including military deployment, refugee bans, and visa restrictions. - As Trump Signs Emergency Border Orders, California Immigrants Lay Low
CalMatters
Examines California’s resistance to federal immigration crackdowns and legal pushback.
3. Economic Instability and Protest Risk
- United States GDP Q1 2025: Sharpest Contraction Since Q1 2022
FocusEconomics
GDP fell 0.3%; consumer spending and federal outlays declined sharply amid tariff fears. - Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (PDF)
Official government data on Q1 contraction and inflationary pressures. - US Economy Contracts More Than Expected in Q1
Trading Economics
Highlights consumer weakness and historical comparisons to 2020 and 2008 downturns.
4. Foreign Disinformation and Internal Fragmentation
- How the U.S. Can Counter Disinformation From Russia and China
Council on Foreign Relations
Explains tactics like “pre-positioning” false narratives and exploiting domestic divides. - Impact of Disinformation on U.S. Social Stability in 2025
MAX Security Global Forecast
Details foreign and domestic campaigns targeting Trump policies and democratic institutions. - ‘Bots from Russia and China’: Inside the Foreign Effort to Sow Division After Charlie Kirk’s Killing
Politico
Tracks coordinated disinformation spikes following high-profile political violence.
5. Militias, Paramilitary Groups, and Federal Authority
- Use of Military to Quell Protests and Civil Disturbances
First Amendment Encyclopedia
Reviews legal precedents and recent deployments of National Guard and Marines in U.S. cities. - 2025 Deployment of Federal Forces in the United States
Wikipedia
Documents Trump’s use of federal troops in Democratic-led cities and legal challenges. - Extremist Militias on Federal Duty
Center for a New American Security
Explores legal loopholes in the Insurrection Act and risks of legitimizing unorganized militias.
6. Breakdown in Trust Toward Federal Institutions
- Post-Truth and Post-Trust: Redefining Trust in Judiciary and Media
ERA Forum (Springer)
Analyzes how populist movements erode institutional trust and democratic norms. - Democracy in Crisis: Trust in Democratic Institutions Declining Globally
University of Southampton
Global survey data shows sharp decline in trust toward parliaments and governments. - Public Trust in Government: 1958–2024
Pew Research Center
U.S. trust in federal government remains near historic lows; only 22% express confidence.
7. Constitutional Crisis and Pre-Civil War Parallels
- Are We Headed for a Constitutional Crisis?
Harvard Kennedy School
Legal scholars compare Trump’s executive actions to pre-Civil War power struggles. - Constitutional Crises and the Insurrection Act
University of Pennsylvania (PDF)
Explores legal ambiguities and historical precedents for federal overreach. - The American Civil War as a Constitutional Crisis
JSTOR
Historical analysis of how political rhetoric and legislative breakdown led to secession.
Here’s a curated list of documentaries and investigative films that explore the possibility of civil conflict in the United States—through lenses of political polarization, militia movements, disinformation, and institutional breakdown. These works blend journalism, expert interviews, and historical parallels to examine how close the U.S. might be to internal rupture:
🎥 Documentaries on U.S. Civil Conflict Potential
1. The Divided States of America (PBS Frontline, 2021–2023)
- Focus: Political polarization, racial tensions, and democratic erosion.
- Highlights: Interviews with voters, lawmakers, and scholars; explores how division deepened post-2016.
- Watch on PBS
2. American Insurrection (PBS Frontline, 2021)
- Focus: Rise of far-right militias and extremist ideologies post-January 6.
- Highlights: Tracks groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys; includes FBI and DHS perspectives.
- Watch on PBS
3. Civil War 2.0 (VICE News, 2022)
- Focus: Online radicalization and paramilitary organizing.
- Highlights: Explores how platforms like Telegram and Facebook fuel armed mobilization.
- Watch on YouTube
4. The Plot to Overturn the Election (PBS Frontline, 2022)
- Focus: Legal and extralegal efforts to subvert the 2020 election.
- Highlights: Connects election denialism to broader threats against democratic institutions.
- Watch on PBS
5. United States of Conspiracy (PBS Frontline, 2020)
- Focus: Disinformation and the rise of QAnon, Infowars, and political extremism.
- Highlights: Examines how conspiracy theories erode trust and fuel radical action.
- Watch on PBS
6. The Storm Is Here (HBO Max, 2023)
- Focus: Based on Luke Mogelson’s reporting; chronicles the lead-up to January 6.
- Highlights: Embedded footage with militias, protestors, and Capitol rioters.
- More info on HBO
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